Professor of economics at KEDGE Business School (Paris and Bordeaux), adjunct professor at New York University during the summer and lecturer at the École hôtelière de Lausanne, our guest observes Champagne with the sharp eye of an economist and the sensitivity of a wine enthusiast. For more than ten years, he has analysed market dynamics, consumer behaviour and the strategic choices of the world’s major wine regions. For Sparkling News, he offers a deeply engaged reading of the future of Champagne.
According to him, the recent decline in Champagne sales does not reflect a lasting loss of attractiveness. It is part of a well-known cycle. Champagne is a product of celebration, extremely sensitive to external shocks. Pandemics, wars and economic crises mechanically curb consumption. Recent history has shown this clearly: after Covid, sales rebounded strongly as soon as collective anxiety eased, first in Australia and then across the rest of the world.
The key signals to watch are primarily geopolitical and macroeconomic. A lasting de-escalation of international conflicts, a less anxiety-driven political climate in Europe and a recovery in household confidence would immediately support consumption.
France remains a key market, accounting for around 43.6% of sales in 2024. Political and economic uncertainty there weighs directly on volumes.
Olivier Gergaud also looks at more granular indicators, such as online demand analysis tools. Google Trends, for example, makes it possible to measure global interest in the word “Champagne” and to anticipate trend reversals, helping to identify the countries where interest — and therefore potentially sales — is highest.
In the United States, the leading export market in 2024 with 27.47 million bottles, the situation is more complex. The weakening of the dollar, higher tariffs on European products and, above all, high interest rates are weighing heavily on consumption. The prevalence of variable-rate mortgages has triggered a shock to purchasing power for many American households, curbing festive spending — Champagne included.
Champagne is a luxury good in the economic sense of the term: its consumption reacts strongly to income variations. In China, estimated elasticity stands at 2.86. A 1% increase in income there translates into nearly a 3% rise in Champagne sales. The reverse is equally true during economic slowdowns.
Despite the sharp decline in wine imports into China since 2019, the long-term potential remains immense. The size of the population, the growing interest in wine culture in major metropolitan areas and the arrival of Chinese students in France to train in wine business management all represent positive long-term signals.
India shows a similar profile, albeit with a time lag. The population is vast, wealth remains unevenly distributed, but interest in wine is growing among urban elites. Over the longer term, certain African countries, such as Nigeria, could also play a role, provided that economic growth and political stability allow for the emergence of a solvent consumer base.
For Champagne, the future clearly does not lie in increasing volumes, but in moving upmarket in terms of quality and value. This dynamic is already underway. Climate warming has improved grape ripeness, while know-how continues to advance.
A new generation of independent winegrowers has profoundly reshaped the landscape. Soil work, biodynamics and precise winemaking: these producers are now able to compete in both price and reputation with the major houses in very mature markets. The stars of the appellation are no longer solely the historic brands, but also names that have become essential references for connoisseurs.
The continuous rise in prices nonetheless raises questions. At around €20, entry-level Champagne faces fierce competition, whether from other sparkling wines or from high-quality still wines, often perceived as more environmentally virtuous.
The risk lies in an excessive use of price as a signal of quality, combined with an artificial management of scarcity. Today’s consumers are far better informed than they were thirty years ago. Apps, guides, tastings and wine tourism mean that price is no longer the sole benchmark.
The example of Bordeaux serves as a warning. A surge in prices perceived as disconnected from quality and environmental efforts has durably damaged the region’s image. Champagne still has the ability to avoid this pitfall, provided it maintains a clear link between quality, volumes and pricing.
Generation Z drinks less alcohol but places major importance on environmental issues and values. Sustainable viticulture in Champagne has delivered real progress, but it cannot replace recognised certifications such as organic or biodynamic.
With only around 8% of its vineyards certified organic, Champagne lags behind other French regions. The lack of a clear and readable roadmap for ecological transition represents a major risk to the appellation’s future credibility.
Consumers are willing to pay more, provided they understand why. Transparency, respect for harvest workers and consistency between environmental practices and pricing strategies have become inseparable from brand image.
Consumer education is a key lever. The online training programmes launched by the interprofessional body are useful, but the main challenge lies in wine tourism. Welcoming visitors, explaining the process and showcasing the work in the vineyards and cellars create lasting attachment.
UNESCO World Heritage status has strengthened the region’s appeal, but it also brings a duty of exemplarity. Welcoming visitors is a profession in its own right, requiring specific linguistic and cultural skills.
Following the example of Bordeaux or Alsace, the creation of interprofession-led tasting spaces could strengthen the link between producers and consumers, highlighting the diversity and quality of Champagnes.
According to him, consumers who discover sparkling wines through English sparkling wines represent a new audience that may, over time, also develop an interest in Champagne. These enthusiasts can move between productions from Kent and those of Champagne.
The most direct competition at the lower end of the market remains Prosecco, despite the existence of high-quality cuvées. Due to the grape varieties used, Prosecco’s aromatic profile differs significantly from that of Champagne, placing the two products in a relationship of complementarity in the premium segment rather than substitution. By contrast, at entry level and for certain consumption occasions, Prosecco tends to capture market share at the expense of more expensive Champagnes, sometimes with less demanding quality standards.
If Champagne remains the most admired sparkling wine in the world, it is thanks to a unique history, a first-mover advantage and powerful brands. But today, this reputation is also fuelled by renewal driven by committed winegrowers, more environmentally respectful practices and modern communication.
Climate change, paradoxically, is opening up new possibilities: single-parcel wines, clearer expressions of terroir and a greater diversity of styles. Champagne is becoming less monolithic, more vibrant and closer to what today’s wine lovers are seeking.
To maintain its global leadership, Champagne will need to reconcile five key requirements: respect for stakeholders, a credible environmental commitment, continuous quality improvement, excellence in hospitality and coherent pricing.
Competition is not a threat in itself — it is a driver. When embraced with confidence, it pushes Champagne to reinvent itself without betraying what makes it unique. And it is precisely in this collective capacity for adaptation that, according to him, the future of Champagne lies as the 2040 horizon approaches.
